Match 1 · Group A · 2026-06-11 · 13:00 CST local · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Mexico
Model pick — most probable exact scoreline, 15% chance.
Mexico win
74%
Draw
18%
South Africa win
8%
Elo
1875·1517
Scoreline probabilities
Rows Mexico, columns South Africa. Darker is more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.7 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |