Golden Boot projection

Top Scorers

xG = goals scored so far plus the player's share of his team's simulated remaining goals (10,000 tournament simulations). P(boot) = how often the player finishes outright top scorer in those simulations. Market odds shown for comparison. Recomputed after results.

PlayerGoalsxGP(boot)Odds

1Harry KaneEnglandpens58 goals all comps for Bayern (36 Bundesliga, 3rd straight Torjägerkanone); England joint-top qualifying scorer with 805.022.9%8/1

2Kylian MbappéFrancepens43 goals in 47 apps for Real Madrid 25-26; 5 goals in 4 qualifiers; defending 2022 Golden Boot04.213.9%7/1

3Cristiano RonaldoPortugalpens30 goals in 37 apps as Al-Nassr won Saudi title; 25 goals in last 30 NT games; record 6th World Cup at 4104.113.6%21/1

4Mikel OyarzabalSpainpensCareer-best 15 LaLiga goals (7 pens); Spain's joint-top qualifying scorer and first-choice penalty taker03.78.6%15/1

5Lionel MessiArgentinapensWon CONMEBOL qualifying Golden Boot (8); 12 goals so far in 2026 MLS; final World Cup at 3803.58.0%17/1

6Erling HaalandNorwaypensRecord 16 goals in 8 qualifiers (none penalties, incl 5 vs Moldova); Norway's first WC since 199803.36.9%15/1

7Luis DíazColombia24 goals + 17 assists in Bayern title season; 2nd-top CONMEBOL qualifying scorer03.04.4%51/1

8Luis Javier SuárezColombia28 Liga Portugal goals for Sporting; scored 4 in one qualifier vs Venezuela02.83.2%51/1

9RaphinhaBrazilpens21 LaLiga + 3 UCL goals for Barcelona; Brazil's top qualifying scorer; shares penalty duties02.72.8%29/1

10Lamine YamalSpain16 LaLiga + 6 UCL goals, LaLiga player of the season; more creator than finisher02.62.0%23/1

11Lautaro MartínezArgentinaSerie A capocannoniere (17), 22 all comps for Inter; rotates with Álvarez02.51.9%36/1

12Darwin NúñezUruguay6 goals in 16 Saudi league games; 5 in qualifying; streaky finisher02.21.8%66/1

13Memphis DepayNetherlandsNetherlands all-time top scorer; top scorer (8) in qualifying; thin club output at Corinthians02.11.4%51/1

14Christian PulisicUnited Statespens~10 all comps for Milan; USA's talisman and penalty taker01.91.2%81/1

15Kevin De BruyneBelgiumpensInjury-limited Napoli season; productive in qualifying; last World Cup at 3402.11.2%81/1

16Deniz UndavGermany19 Bundesliga goals for Stuttgart, top German scorer; battling Woltemade to start02.11.0%51/1

17Cody GakpoNetherlandspensModest Liverpool season but red-hot for Oranje; now on NT penalties01.80.9%41/1

18Julián ÁlvarezArgentinaQuieter Atlético season (~12 all comps); guaranteed starter alongside Messi02.10.8%31/1

19Ferran TorresSpain16 goals across comps for Barcelona; competes with Oyarzabal for the 9 slot02.00.6%51/1

20Romelu LukakuBelgiumpensHigh-grade thigh tear Aug 2025, barely played; fitness major doubt but Belgium's talisman01.70.5%41/1

21Mikel MerinoSpainArsenal midfielder used as striker; hat-trick vs Turkey + brace vs Bulgaria in qualifying01.90.4%41/1

22Vinícius JúniorBrazil16 LaLiga + 5 UCL goals; sealed Brazil qualification vs Paraguay; wide role caps volume01.70.4%31/1

23Michael OliseFranceMonster Bayern season: ~22 goals, ~31 assists; France's form attacker behind Mbappé01.80.4%51/1

24Jean-Philippe MatetaFrance22 PL goals for Crystal Palace; France's bench battering-ram behind Mbappé01.70.4%51/1

25Nick WoltemadeGermanyGermany's top qualifying scorer (4); just 1 PL goal after Christmas01.50.3%66/1

26Igor ThiagoBrazil22 PL goals for Brentford; new to Seleção, likely impact sub01.40.2%51/1

27Gonçalo RamosPortugal13 goals as PSG super-sub; backs up/rotates with Ronaldo01.30.1%66/1

28Alexander SørlothNorwayStarted all 8 qualifiers next to Haaland, scoring 5; aerial target in double-901.30.1%66/1

29Bruno FernandesPortugal9 PL goals + record 21 assists, PL Player of the Season; pens only when Ronaldo off01.30.1%66/1

30Ollie WatkinsEngland16 goals in 37 for Aston Villa; Kane's backup01.10.0%66/1

31Kai HavertzGermanypensKnee injury wiped out most of Arsenal 25-26; Germany's first-choice penalty taker if starting00.80.0%31/1

32Leandro TrossardBelgium6 PL goals for champions Arsenal; likely wide starter00.80.0%66/1

33Ousmane DembéléFrance2025 Ballon d'Or winner but injury-wrecked 25-26 (19 matches missed); fitness a live risk00.80.0%26/1

34Matheus CunhaBrazil10 PL goals for Manchester United; false-nine candidate under Ancelotti00.80.0%51/1

35Santiago GiménezMexicoGoalless in Serie A, 5 months out injured; host nation; form a major concern00.50.0%66/1

36Donyell MalenNetherlands~6 goals at Aston Villa; squad rotation option00.80.0%51/1

37Bukayo SakaEngland~10 all comps in Arsenal's title season; nailed starter but Kane takes pens00.80.0%51/1

38EndrickBrazil8 goals in half-season Lyon loan; bench role00.70.0%51/1

39Désiré DouéFrance~0.5 goals/90 for UCL-winning PSG when fit; injury-interrupted season00.70.0%51/1

40Jude BellinghamEnglandDown year: 8 goals in 40 apps for Real Madrid; starter but not primary scorer00.60.0%66/1

41Jamal MusialaGermanyOnly returned from long layoff in Dec; rhythm uncertain00.40.0%66/1

42Marcus RashfordEngland8 LaLiga goals + 7 assists for Barcelona; fighting for wide starting spot00.60.0%66/1

43Florian WirtzGermanySlow first Liverpool season; still Germany's creative hub00.60.0%66/1

44NeymarBrazil4 goals in 8 Serie A games for Santos in 2026; bench/cameo role, fitness fragile00.30.0%66/1

Only tracked candidates modeled — an untracked outsider winning is not priced in