Match 100 · Quarter-final · 2026-07-11 · 20:00 CDT local · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Argentina
Winner Match 95 vs Winner Match 96 · pairing projected, not confirmed
Model pick — most probable exact scoreline, 11% chance.
Argentina win
47%
Draw
27%
Portugal win
26%
Elo
2114·1986
Scoreline probabilities
Rows Argentina, columns Portugal. Darker is more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |