Match 104 · Final · 2026-07-19 · 15:00 EDT local · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Spain
Winner Match 101 vs Winner Match 102 · pairing projected, not confirmed
Model pick — most probable exact scoreline, 10% chance.
Spain win
42%
Draw
28%
Argentina win
30%
Elo
2157·2114
Scoreline probabilities
Rows Spain, columns Argentina. Darker is more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |