Match 11 · Group F · 2026-06-14 · 15:00 CDT local · AT&T Stadium, Arlington
Netherlands
Model pick — most probable exact scoreline, 11% chance.
Netherlands win
46%
Draw
26%
Japan win
28%
Elo
1948·1906
Scoreline probabilities
Rows Netherlands, columns Japan. Darker is more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |