Match 22 · Group L · 2026-06-17 · 15:00 CDT local · AT&T Stadium, Arlington
England
Model pick — most probable exact scoreline, 12% chance.
England win
55%
Draw
25%
Croatia win
20%
Elo
2021·1912
Scoreline probabilities
Rows England, columns Croatia. Darker is more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |