Match 56 · Group E · 2026-06-25 · 16:00 EDT local · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Ecuador
Model pick — most probable exact scoreline, 13% chance.
Ecuador win
24%
Draw
26%
Germany win
50%
Elo
1938·1932
Scoreline probabilities
Rows Ecuador, columns Germany. Darker is more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 12.4 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |