Match 76 · Round of 32 · 2026-06-29 · 12:00 CDT local · NRG Stadium, Houston
Brazil
Winner Group C vs Runner-up Group F · pairing projected, not confirmed
Model pick — most probable exact scoreline, 11% chance.
Brazil win
50%
Draw
27%
Japan win
24%
Elo
1991·1906
Scoreline probabilities
Rows Brazil, columns Japan. Darker is more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |