Match 78 · Round of 32 · 2026-06-30 · 12:00 CDT local · AT&T Stadium, Arlington
Ecuador
Runner-up Group E vs Runner-up Group I · pairing projected, not confirmed
Model pick — most probable exact scoreline, 14% chance.
Ecuador win
35%
Draw
29%
Norway win
36%
Elo
1938·1914
Scoreline probabilities
Rows Ecuador, columns Norway. Darker is more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 13.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |