Match 90 · Round of 16 · 2026-07-04 · 12:00 CDT local · NRG Stadium, Houston
Canada
Winner Match 73 vs Winner Match 75 · pairing projected, not confirmed
Model pick — most probable exact scoreline, 11% chance.
Canada win
25%
Draw
27%
Netherlands win
48%
Elo
1788·1948
Scoreline probabilities
Rows Canada, columns Netherlands. Darker is more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |